Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were fractionally mixed, but mostly lower going into the weekend. Dec traded a 4 cent range on the day after double digit volatility on Thursday. The 5-day QPF shows moisture in MN leaking into E. ND. A separate system in VA could drift N.W. and give OH crops a drink. The majority of crop land, however, is forecasted to receive less than an inch. The most popular game in town is estimating yield and production losses from the derecho. U.S. Grains council reported DDGS FOB prices were up $12/ton wk/wk, with Gulf prices quoted at $208/MT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report with data from Tuesday August 11 showed corn specs OI dropped 1.2% for a net short reduction of just 459 contracts. As of Tuesday, corn specs were 172,361 contracts net short.

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.24 1/2, down 3/4 cent,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.38, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.49 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.56 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans futures closed mostly lower with losses limited to 2 1/4 cents through July ’21. Sept futures were fractionally higher on the day in an attempt to close the expiration gap. August beans expired at $9.03 1/2. Soymeal futures closed the session with 30 cent losses, and August expired at $289.70/ton. Soy oil futures traded 11 to 17 points lower; August went off at 31.53 cents/lb. Private exporters sold 126,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China, reported under the USDA daily system. Ahead of Monday’s NOPA report, analysts estimate 172 mbu of beans were processed by NOPA crushers in July. NOPA member bean oil stocks are estimated at 1.688b lbs as of July 31. Long liquidation with some new sellers left managed money soybean traders 17,355 contracts less net long wk/wk in the CFTC report. As of Tuesday soybean spec traders were 26,864 contracts net long. That was just ahead of the USDA reports on Wednesday. In soymeal, the CoT report showed spec traders extended their net short by 8,306 contracts to 29,291. Managed money covered some bean oil shorts on the week ending the 11th, to leave them 52,143 contracts net long.

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97, up 3/4 cent,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.98 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.03 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Soybean Meal closed at $291.80, down $0.30

Sep 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.06, down $0.17

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures ended the day higher, while KC wheat closed mostly in the red. SRW wheat ended the day 1 1/2 to 3 1/4 cents higher, and for Sept that overcame earlier losses as futures were up 0.9% from Friday to Friday. KC futures were mostly lower at the closing bell with losses limited to a half a penny. MGE wheat closed with gains of 1/2 to 1 3/4 cents, which pushed Sept 0.6% higher wk/wk. The drought in N and N.W. Argentina is affecting wheat there. BAGE reported 0.8% of the national wheat crop was heading, with just a 22% good/ex condition rating. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production at 18-19 MMT (USDA @ 20.5). The weekly Commitment of Traders report had managed money 15,532 contracts net short in SRW on August 11. The swing from net long to net short came by way of long liquidation. KC wheat specs were 8,781 contracts more net short to 34,592 contracts. In MPLS HRS futures, managed money was net short 24,513 contracts. That extends the record longest spec net short to 101 consecutive weeks.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.00, up 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.25 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.97 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month live cattle futures gave back midday gains but closed higher. August futures added 55 cents closing at $107.60. Feeder cattle futures ended the session with triple digit losses in August and October. August feeders were still up 0.8% from Friday to Friday. The August 13 Feeder Cattle Index from CME fell back 85 cents to $142.25. Friday cash sales were $106 in the WCB and $168 in the beef. The range of the week’s cash cattle trades has been $104-$107, with dressed sales $165-170. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger on Friday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $14.95. Choice boxes jumped $3.29 higher, and Select boxes were $1.88 stronger to $199.29 cwt. The CFTC noted new buyers for cattle spec traders in the weekly CoT report. Managed money was 45,612 contracts net long as of August 11. In feeders, spec traders were 6,862 contracts net long. USDA’s estimate for WTD cattle slaughter through Saturday is 640k head. That trails the same week last year by 13,000 head.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $107.600, up $0.550,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $110.225, up $0.075,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $112.825, unch,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.925, down $1.025

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.575, down $0.800

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.425, down $1.050

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Nearby lean hog futures closed the session 27 to 92 cents higher, which for Oct added up to a weekly gain of 4.02%. August futures expired today. The Lean Hog Index from CME was $53.48 for August 12, down by 34 cents. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Friday was 9 cents higher at $37.60. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was quoted $74.93 in the PM report, up $1.17. Bellies were $9.93 lower, but all other primals were quoted higher. From Friday to Friday, hams were up 20%. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed new buying coupled with short covering from lean hog spec traders. From week to week, managed money was 4,715 contracts more net long to 18,286 as of the 11th. USDA estimates the week’s hog slaughter through Saturday at 2.565 million head. YTD hog slaughter outpaces last year by 1.1%.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $53.025, up $0.675,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $54.625, up $0.275

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $61.900, up $0.425

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday cotton trading faded back in the afternoon session, as futures ceded midday gains and closed 13 to 16 points lower. Dec cotton traded with an 86 point range, but closed down by 14 points. September cotton futures on the ZXE closed at 11,985 yuan/MT (~ 78.24 cents/lb) in China. The average spot price from USDA’s Weekly Market review was 57.62 cents/lb for cotton on the week ending August 13. The week’s sales on The Seam through Thursday were 5,247 bales at a wtd average gross price of 57.01 cents/lb. The weekly CoT report showed new buying interest from cotton specs on the week ending Aug 11. Managed money was 39,838 contracts net long, up 8,503 wk/wk. The Cotlook A index for Aug 13 fell back 130 points to 68.20 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 48.92 cents/lb, after a 52 point drop. The new LDP for the week is 3.08 cents/lb, effective through next Thursday.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 62.29, down 14 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 62.85, down 14 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 63.76, down 16 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 64.47, down 16 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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