Morning Grains Report 11/17/17

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for November USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed November 1 105.7 105.0- 107.0
Placed in October 107.6 103.6- 113.1
Marketed in October 105.4 105.0- 106.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Nov 1 in Oct in Oct
Allendale Inc. 107.0 113.1 105.1
CoBank 105.7 106.6 105.4
HedgersEdge 105.3 105.9 106.1
Linn Group 105.0 103.6 105.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 105.4 105.8 105.5
NFC Markets 105.5 105.9 105.6
AgStrata LLC 105.7 112.4 105.3
Texas A&M Extension 106.2 109.0 105.3
U.S. Commodities 106.0 107.8 105.4

NOAA December-January-February Outlook

To: ADMIS Research Bulletin
Subject: market talk
inform est US 2018 corn acres near 91.4 mil vs 90.4 last year. Crop of 14,629 mil bu vs 14,578 ly
inform est US 2018 soybean acres near 89.6 mil vs 90.2 last year. Crop of 4,397 mil bu vs 4,425 ly
inform est US 2018 wheat acres near 45.6 mil vs 46.0 last year. Crop of 1,900 mil bu vs 1,741 ly
inform est US 2018 rice acres near 2.575 mil vs 2.487 last year. Crop of 193.3 vs 178.4 ly
informal est US 2018 cotton acres near 12.5 mil vs 12.6 last year. Crop of 20.220 mil bales vs 21.377 ly

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mostly a little lower in Chicago and a little higher in Minneapolis. Egypt bought Russian Wheat at what we’re called very attractive prices given the Ergot restrictions that caused sellers so many problems before are now back in lace. The price was a little lower than the price it paid a week ago. It was a purchase of 240,000 tons. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the Wheat offer and price. World estimates in general remain large and US offers will need to be low to take business. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower due to the fundamentals. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia. Prices might not improve much for the coming year as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal next week. The Canadian Prairies should see light snow today. Mostly dry this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 408 December, with resistance at 427, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 424, 427, and 433 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 624, 617, and 615 December, and resistance is at 632, 642, and 646 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher after trading a little lower in the overnight market on follow through buying. It was a positive close despite a bad weekly export sales report. Commercials were buying to cover reported Iraq demand for 90,000 tons of milled long grain Rice. Short speculators also bought and they were buyers to cover positions. Futures trading had been slow and the cash market had been quiet, so the big commercial buying really moved the prices sharply higher. However, futures remain well below cash markets in much of the US right now. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm, while markets farther north have offered lower prices due to the futures weakness and are very quiet. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather today and next week and showers over the weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal through Saturday, then near to below normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1223 January. Support is at 1198, 1191, and 1167 January, with resistance at 1225, 1243, and 1263 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower. Some speculative selling was seen. Oats closed lower and prices are now near swing targets. More and more traders expect a short covering rally in Corn. Speculators remain very short the market and futures are not likely to move much lower as there is good demand from the ethanol sector and producers are not selling. Basis levels have turned firmer due to these cash market conditions. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis and futures price levels. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions as the rains have stopped for now and are not expected to return in the short-term. Not much selling is reported in South America. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields, but the impact is for later and not now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 333 December. Support is at 334, 331, and 328 December, and resistance is at 342, 344, and 348 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 259 December. Support is at 260, 257, and 253 December, and resistance is at 265, 270, and 273 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower on less than expected weekly export sales. Soybeans futures found more speculative selling to keep the weak price action alive. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower were fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits. Some GMO Soybeans have made it into the human food chain, and this news has caused the government to slow the process until it can identify the problems. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to 60% planted in Brazil right now. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season. Planting progress in Argentina is also a little behind the averages, but i son par with last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 965 January. Support is at 968, 963, and 960 January, and resistance is at 982, 990, and 995 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 309.00 and 304.00 December. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3440, 3400, and 3390 December, with resistance at 3480, 3510, and 3540 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in line with Chicago. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower in sympathy with Soybean Oil in Chicago and on ideas of weak Palm Oil fundamentals. Export data so far this month has been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 520.00, 527.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2710, 2690, and 2660 February, with resistance at 2780, 2820, and 2840 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mixed precipitation possible today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 36 Dec 210 Dec 55 Dec 25-Jan 4-Dec
December 42 Dec 58 Mar 36 Jan
January 40 March 45 Mar 40 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November
December minus 26 Dec 68 Dec
January minus 22 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 16
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 499.20 up 6.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 527.40 dn 1.80
2 Can 514.40 dn 1.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 537.40 dn 1.80
2 Can 524.40 dn 1.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 217.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 672.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 672.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 680.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 680.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 685.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 685.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,690 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 345.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1600)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 70,924 lots, or 2.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,619 3,625 3,609 3,625 3,621 3,617 -4 62,060 308,862
Mar-18 – – – 3,650 3,650 3,650 0 0 34
May-18 3,753 3,758 3,745 3,751 3,753 3,750 -3 8,690 72,602
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,821 3,827 3,816 3,824 3,818 3,822 4 174 1,638
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 – – – 3,884 3,884 3,884 0 0 240
Mar-19 – – – 3,880 3,880 3,880 0 0 2
May-19 – – – 3,892 3,892 3,892 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 556,138 lots, or 9.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,690 1,692 1,675 1,677 1,690 1,681 -9 421,068 784,632
Mar-18 1,700 1,713 1,693 1,702 1,705 1,702 -3 384 1,540
May-18 1,738 1,742 1,728 1,728 1,742 1,731 -11 125,662 378,068
Jul-18 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,758 1,755 -3 2 484
Sep-18 1,756 1,757 1,745 1,746 1,756 1,749 -7 9,016 58,832
Nov-18 1,764 1,764 1,754 1,762 1,767 1,760 -7 6 48
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,136,410 lots, or 32.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 2,881 2,881 2,881 2,881 2,881 2,881 0 86 1,484
Jan-18 2,858 2,869 2,845 2,850 2,848 2,853 5 729,416 1,452,166
Mar-18 2,848 2,898 2,726 2,818 2,810 2,829 19 150 250
May-18 2,768 2,779 2,758 2,769 2,761 2,766 5 385,982 1,256,394
Jul-18 2,777 2,777 2,777 2,777 2,770 2,777 7 6 162
Aug-18 – – – 2,771 2,771 2,771 0 0 136
Sep-18 2,772 2,784 2,765 2,772 2,769 2,773 4 20,768 123,974
Nov-18 2,826 2,826 2,826 2,826 2,767 2,826 59 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 259,168 lots, or 14.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,492 5,510 5,472 5,478 5,486 5,490 4 171,232 260,564
Feb-18 – – – 5,578 5,578 5,578 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,630 5,626 5,630 4 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,726 5,726 5,726 0 0 10
May-18 5,598 5,630 5,568 5,574 5,594 5,598 4 84,936 266,140
Jun-18 – – – 5,596 5,596 5,596 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,692 5,692 5,692 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,502 5,504 2 0 2
Sep-18 5,536 5,548 5,498 5,500 5,528 5,520 -8 3,000 25,928
Oct-18 – – – 5,524 5,524 5,524 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 277,764 lots, or 16.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,894 5,894 5,894 0 0 6
Jan-18 5,988 6,008 5,958 5,958 5,984 5,982 -2 198,022 645,352
Mar-18 – – – 6,018 6,018 6,018 0 0 10
May-18 6,140 6,170 6,122 6,124 6,150 6,146 -4 75,700 340,014
Jul-18 – – – 6,306 6,306 6,306 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,194 6,194 6,194 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,242 6,264 6,216 6,220 6,238 6,230 -8 4,042 15,804
Nov-18 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archives • www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017