AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1 to 2 cents lower after settling 3/4 to 1 cent lower on Wednesday. Drier weather in the western Corn Belt is allowing harvest activity to pick up. The weekly EIA report indicated reduced corn consumption, with ethanol production for the week of 10/12 averaging 1.011 million barrels per day. That was down 29,000 bpd from the week prior and the lowest output since mid-April. Ethanol stocks were up another 109,000 barrels to 24.130 million barrels despite the reduced production. EPA also indicated that the E15 plan won’t be available for comment until February. Trade ideas for this morning’s USDA Export Sales report are in the 800,000 to 1.3 MMT range.

Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures are trading mostly 7 cents lower this morning. They settled 1/2 to 1 cent higher on Wednesday. Front month soy meal was up $1.40/ton to support product value, with soy oil down 10 points. Palm oil futures hit a 4-week high on ideas of increased use for biodiesel but also expanded biodiesel exports. Analysts are estimating today’s USDA export sales report will show 0.6-1 MMT in 18/19 soybean export sales during the week of 10/11. Soy meal sales are seen at 150,000-450,000 MT, with soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT in the first full week of the new MY. An auction of Chinese state reserves saw 97,292 MT of 2013 soybeans sold on Wednesday, totaling 96.05% of the amount offered.

Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher in the three markets this morning. They closed 4 to 9 lower across the three exchanges on Wednesday. Minneapolis spring wheat was the weakest. Preliminary open interest rose 1,670 contracts in the Chicago futures, indicating some new selling interest. Drier weather is allowing winter wheat planting to progress and a stronger US dollar was also an issue for the bulls. Trade estimates ahead of today’s Export Sales report are running 300,000-600,000 MT. Last week’s sales totaled 339,022 MT. A couple optional origin tenders saw South Korea purchase 60,000 MT and Jordan buying 60,000 MT from CHS.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Cattle Market Commentary

Live cattle futures settled 52 cents lower to 27 cents higher yesterday, but only nearby October was in the plus column. Feeder cattle futures were mostly 57 to 87 cents lower at the close, with nearby October up 5 cents as it converges with cash before expiration. The CME feeder cattle index was down 22 cents on October 16 at $155.314. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday. Choice boxes were down 56 cents @ $204.56, with Select down $1.36 to $191.19. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday is 352,000 head. That is 1,000 above the previous week and 5,000 head larger than last year. The weekly FCE auction saw no completed sales. A few cash sales of $174 have been reported in Nebraska, with a few $111 trades in CO. Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report is expected to show 11.501 million head of cattle on feed October 1, 6.4% larger than last year if realized. Marketings are expected to be about 3% smaller than in September 2017.

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

Lean hog futures were down $.97 to$2.17 in the front three months yesterday, with contracts after July 2019 in the black on spread activity. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 26 cents from the previous day @ $68.59 on October 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.35 lower @ $78.52 in the PM report. The national base hog carcass value was 66 cents lower at a weighted average of $59.26 this afternoon. Both ECB and WCB values were lower. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 477,000 head on Wednesday, with the week to date total at 1.413 million. That is up 24,000 from last week and 52,000 larger than the same week in 2017. China is up to around 40 cases of ASF in 10 provinces, but confirmed liquidations are still less than 50,000 head.

Cotton Market Commentary

Cotton futures are trading 31 to 49 points lower this morning. They were 19 to 41 points lower on Wednesday. The US dollar index was up sharply, trading at the highest reading since October 10. It is higher again today. Trade estimates for cotton production losses from Hurricane Michael are running anywhere from 300,000 to 900,000 bales, depending on assumptions about the quantity harvested before the storm hit and how much can be salvaged from damaged fields. The weekly USDA Export Sales report will be back on the regular schedule this week with the Thursday morning 7:30 a.m. CDT release. The Cotlook A index was up 40 points from the previous day at 88.05 cents/lb on October 16. The USDA weekly AWP is 67.73 cents/lb, and will be updated later today.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com